Analysis of manufacturing cost and market niches for Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) solar cells

Thin-film solar cells, due to their low material usage and flexible substrates compatibility, have the potential to fill market niches for photovoltaic (PV) technologies. Among them, the Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGS) solar cell is a widely deployed mature technology. However, the usage of scarce material like Ga and In is considered a major hindrance for its further scaling up. The commercial opportunity of its promising counterpart Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) with a similar structure but low-cost potential, has not yet been fully recognized. In this paper, the bottom-up approach is used to build models of cost analysis for CZTS on the different substrates with their probability distribution simulated by the Monte Carlo method. The resulting production costs are $41–52 per m2, making them economically attractive. Prospective strategies for further cost reduction are also suggested. The fundamental technical features of CZTS are reviewed, identifying the large efficiency potential of this PV technology. Analysis of different market opportunities is performed to fit the market demands better. Moreover, possible constraints and promising pathways towards the commercialization of the emerging CZTS technology are proposed.